The non-liquid apartments in Kiev are cheaper by one third.
In Kiev continues to become cheaper housing. Last year prices fell on average by 10-15% and, apparently, in 2018, the sale will continue. Discounts per square meter frighten even the National Bank. As stated in a December report, the NBU on financial stability, the cost of housing in Ukraine, including in Kiev "have already approached critically low levels".
In the national Bank have calculated that in 2017 the average cost of construction per square meter was about 12.2 thousand. This year the figure will rise to 14.3 thousand. And selling buildings at 14.5 thousand hryvnias / sq. m. that is if the developers will raise prices, with each square they will be able to earn a mere minuscule - 200 hryvnia. It is clear that it's not the money, which investors are in the construction business.
In Kiev continues to become cheaper housing. Last year prices fell on average by 10-15% and, apparently, in 2018, the sale will continue. Discounts per square meter frighten even the National Bank. As stated in a December report, the NBU on financial stability, the cost of housing in Ukraine, including in Kiev "have already approached critically low levels".
In the national Bank have calculated that in 2017 the average cost of construction per square meter was about 12.2 thousand. This year the figure will rise to 14.3 thousand. And selling buildings at 14.5 thousand hryvnias / sq. m. that is if the developers will raise prices, with each square they will be able to earn a mere minuscule - 200 hryvnia. It is clear that it's not the money, which investors are in the construction business.
At the same time, the panic among the developers themselves is not observed. On the contrary, they begin new projects. According to state statistics, for the 3rd quarter of 2017 in Kiev put into operation more than 1 million square meters of new housing, which is 56.3% more than in the same period last year.
Why does the "bubble" not burst?
Why does the "bubble" not burst?
According to analyst company SV Development Sergei Kostetskii, now in the capital on sale more than 40 thousand apartments in new buildings. While actual transactions are not greater than 1 thousand a month.
Moreover, as said managing Director of ARPA Real Estate Michael Artyukhov, the number of transactions is not only not grow but declined in 2017 by 10-15%.
"That is on the market there is a clear overproduction - effective demand low and supply is growing," - says Kostecki. This trend a couple of years ago, the experts state that the construction market is inflated "a bubble". That is, when the construction is financed on the principle of a pyramid - at home with unsold apartments being finished due to the start of construction of new homes, which collect money from people.
Since then, analysts regularly make bets when this "bubble" will burst and hundreds of construction projects will remain in the status of "eternal unfinished".
However, as practice shows, while their forecasts never came true. Sergey Kostecki explains the illusion of stability just.
"We all understand why you were sold a smart apartment. Banks collapsed, all as compensation they were given 200 thousand hryvnias. Many former investors have invested the money in real estate. Thus, in 2014 the number of purchased affordable housing was growing," - said Sergey Kostecki.
But the mass fall of banks in Ukraine is almost over, and the Ukrainians again suffered their savings in deposits. In the same apartment invest less: the growing communal does not allow to make good money on the delivery of housing for rent.
So the risk that the "bubble will burst," is not only not disappeared, but become quite real if not this year then next year, experts say.
"Developers need to raise prices at least at the inflation rate, because of expensive materials, rising wages. But even this margin of 10-15% is unattainable for them, otherwise, sales will fall even more. So they are forced to sell apartments cheap, and to finish the facility, begin to collect the money from the next job site. Otherwise, this business is not lead. Company with 1-2 projects simply do not survive. As a result, the terms of delivery of houses is constantly delayed, and in 2018 the list ending will increase even more", - said the head of the Agency "Euro ATG" Grigory Pererva.
According to SV Development, some already commissioned new buildings remain unsold up to 70% of the apartments. So the only thing that can force a buyer to invest money in a pit is a super low price. Despite the rise of the dollar (and associated higher prices for materials), in 2018, experts expect a rise in the price of real estate.
But the sale in question. In the capital a lot of dilapidated housing, the owners of which have been dreaming to replace it with new construction. So as soon as the price of new apartments will start to further fall in demand immediately is activated, and with it will increase the supply on the secondary market. That, in turn, will reduce prices on the "secondary housing", followed by "primary".
To break out of this vicious circle of dumping, developers look for other ways to increase the profitability of your business.
"The market is constantly searching for technologies that would reduce the cost per square meter", - says Grigory Pererva.
However, while these "technologies" rather be called saving for all companies massively use cheap and substandard materials, cut square, increase the number of apartments on the landing, and so on.
"High quality and smart projects (energy-efficient) on the market are extremely small," - said Artyukhov. But, in fact, to get an energy-efficient apartment and the time to save on a communal, Ukrainians and want to buy housing in the new building.
In fact, it turns out that cobbled together in haste "new home" after a few years, looks worse than the Soviet panel blocks of flats, which survived for decades.
"Khrushchevki" at $ 10 thousand.
However, buying a resale Ukrainians still don't want to. According to Artyukhova, share in sales of housing in Ukraine is growing and already exceeds 50%.
"Reducing the area of apartments in new residential complex allows developers to offer attractive rates. Some developers took the path of reconstruction and reduction of previously commissioned large and small and with repair and furniture. This strategy on the market for new housing has largely determined the decline in interest in the secondary. There, in turn, began to grow offer. in particular, due to the intervention of DEPOSIT GUARANTEE FUND, other sellers of mortgage housing. The average time of sale of the old apartments has increased. Previously, it was up to 50-120 days, and today it is 100 days or more and for private homes - from 6 to 12 months, " says Michael Artyukhov.
Potential buyers have not attracted even discounts that they're trying to lure the owners of the apartments. Formally, the owners are in no hurry to reduce prices, but if suddenly on the horizon there is a real buyer with money, he was willing to make concessions.
Bargaining, according to realtors, it may reach up to 15% of the declared value of the apartment, but it's at least $ 3-5 thousand.
The result in just a few months, average prices on the secondary market in Kiev declined by 0.5%, and two-bedroom apartments fell from 0.8%. All in, all since the beginning of the year prices fell by 6.5%, - stated in the Domik.ua.
Particularly active now sell "Khrushchevki". This housing is no longer the subject of dreams of potential newcomers. And every year the demand for it is declining because of suitable limit the operation of tens of "Khrushchevki", built in the 60 of the last century.
"If the government has clarified its plans for the renovation of Khrushchev, the apartment they could collapse in price 20-30%", - says Pererva.
In the meantime, prices in the "Khrushchevki" fall in 2018, according to forecasts, will drop at least another 10%. The same discounts will be forced to offer to potential buyers and owners of flats in prefabricated houses. That is if it is decent kopeck piece in a residential district of Kiev actually buy for $ 30-35 thousand, by the end of the year its value will drop to $ 27-31. 5 thousand. The cheapest "Khrushchevki" may fall in price to $ 10-14 thousand, - experts predict.
The situation may change only with the restoration of Bank lending.
"Ukrainians do not hurry to take loans in banks. From January to September 2017 the people took out mortgage loans only on 963 million. This is the main reason for the decline in the value of apartments in Ukraine", - stated in the NBU.
And this trend is quite understandable - but some banks offer mortgage loans, but those interest rates are going through the roof to the heavens.
According to analysts, loans, if you and will start to come to life, then not the next, but only, at best, in 2019, assuming that no new political and economic turmoil. That's when we can expect the growth of demand, and hence prices of most liquid apartments.
According to the materials: strana.ua